Nres Ntawm PV Nqe Hike

Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 31, TCL Central tshaj tawm tus nqi tshiab ntawm mono-crystalline silicon wafers. Ntxiv rau kev tshem tawm 158.75 qhov loj me, tus nqi ntawm 218.2, 210, 182 qhov loj silicon wafers raug txo los ntawm 0.2 ~ 0.35 yuan ib thooj piv nrog lub sijhawm dhau los. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias qhov no yog thawj zaug uas tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers raug txo rau xyoo no.

Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li Polaris hnub ci photovoltaic network taug qab PVInfoLink quotation (raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2), cov khoom siv silicon tus nqi tau ruaj khov rau 9 lub lis piam, 10 lub lis piam ntawm cov khoom, tag nrho, kev lag luam photovoltaic saw no nthwv dej ntawm tus nqi nce zoo li muaj " nres".

Ma Haitian, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj Secretary General ntawm Silicon Ceg ntawm Tuam Tshoj Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Association, tau hais tias: "Qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi silicon yuav tsum yog thawj qhov txo qis ntawm tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers, uas yog qhov qhia ncaj qha ntawm cov lus qhia ntawm silicon. txo nqi." Tom qab txo tus nqi ntawm silicon nti, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon puas poob raws li tau teem tseg? Lub roj teeb, cov khoom siv thiab lwm yam khoom siv qis tuaj yeem ua rau tus nqi poob?

Rising tide "brake": ob qho tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam saw ruaj ruaj, cov kwj nruab nrab tseem nce thiab nqis

Tsis muaj qhov tsis ntseeg tias "tus nqi" tau yog lub ntsiab lus kub hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv peb lub xyoos dhau los. iav hauv 2019, "V" nkhaus hauv 2020, "nce thiab nqis" hauv 2021, "hluav taws thiab dej khov"... Kev lag luam xav tau khaws tus nqi ntawm PV kev lag luam saw nyob rau hauv "nce" sib txawv rau lub sijhawm ntev, thiab Cov qauv no tsis tau kuaj xyuas thiab txawm tias hnyav dua hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022.

Raws li cov lus hais ntawm PVInfoLink taug qab los ntawm Polaris hnub ci photovoltaic network, tom qab luv luv luv ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2021, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yog "galloping" txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no mus txog rau thaum xaus lub Yim Hli, thiab tus nqi ntawm Cov khoom siv polysilicon tau nce los ntawm 230 yuan / kg mus rau 303 yuan / kg, thiab ntawm nws lub ncov nws nce mus rau 310 yuan / kg, nce mus txog 35 feem pua.

Raws li daim duab saum toj no qhia tau hais tias, cov nqi tau nce siab tshaj plaws txij lub Rau Hli mus txog rau lub Yim Hli. Tshawb xyuas qhov laj thawj, silicon txuas khoom tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi nce.

Nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli, muaj kev sib tsoo ntawm lub Hoobkas ua lag luam hauv Suav teb hauv Xinjiang ua rau tsis muaj kev npaj kaw thiab kho dua tshiab, ntxiv rau qhov kev tso tawm qeeb ntawm cov khoom siv polysilicon. Tom qab ntawd, cov tuam txhab polysilicon nyob rau lub caij kub kub tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ua haujlwm niaj hnub ib zaug, qee lub tuam txhab txiav cov khoom lag luam vim muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev sib kis hauv Xinjiang ua rau cov khoom siv silicon tsis txaus, thiab tus nqi sawv txhua txoj kev. Nws tsis yog txog thaum lub Yim Hli lig uas peb lub tuam txhab thiab cov thawj coj tau tshaj tawm Daim Ntawv Ceeb Toom Txog Kev Txhim Kho Kev Sib Koom Tes ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam saw thiab Supply Chain kom nres kev loj hlob thiab tswj kev ruaj ntseg. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yog ruaj khov ntawm 303 yuan / kg.

Kev dhia hauv cov nqi silicon tau coj los ntawm kev sib txuas lus ntawm tus nqi nce hauv kev lag luam hauv qab. Kev nce ntawm silicon wafers ib txwm ua qeeb, thiab muaj ob qho kev nce nqi hauv lub Xya Hli xyoo no.

Nyob rau hauv nam ntawm monocrystal silicon wafer, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm M6 mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 6.31 yuan / thooj, qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm M10 yog 7.58 yuan / thooj, thiab qhov nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm G12 txawm ntau tshaj 10 yuan / thooj, nrog nce ntawm 27. ~ 31 feem pua. Nyob rau hauv lub nam ntawm polysilicon wafer, txawm hais tias lub lag luam sib koom poob qis heev, vim hais tias ntawm kev sib cog lus loj ntawm cov khoom siv silicon, muaj kev hloov pauv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob lub sij hawm, tus nqi kuj tau nce tag nrho, txij li lub Rau Hli 29, qhov kev thov kawg, tus nqi kuj tau nce mus rau 3-3.2 yuan/piece.

Cov roj teeb ntu thiab cov nqi nce nqi sib txawv yog qhov sib xws. Xinjiang Silicon Hoobkas raug xwm txheej nyob rau lub Rau Hli txwv kev tsim cov silicon wafers, thiab tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers tau nce siab raws li qhov xav tau ntau tshaj qhov khoom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, raws li PVInfoLink tsom xam, M10 qhov loj me nyob rau lub Rau Hli thiab Lub Xya Hli kev tsim khoom tsis txaus rau cov khoom siv qis qis, thiab qhov tsis txaus ntawm silicon wafers ua rau qhov teeb meem ntawm M10 roj teeb, M10 roj teeb cov nqi txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv. Ntxiv rau qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov peev txheej tsim rov qab mus rau M10, qee lub tuam txhab txwv tsis pub muaj zog thiab nres ua haujlwm, uas tseem cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv ntawm G12 roj teeb.

Txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2, qhov chaw tus nqi ntawm cov roj teeb tseem pom qhov nce me ntsis, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm M6 tau nce mus rau 1.31 yuan / W, nrog nce ntawm 24.8 feem pua. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm M10 nce 25 feem pua ​​​​rau 1.35 yuan / W. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm G12 tau nce mus rau 1.34 yuan / W, nce 29.5 feem pua. Nws yog tsim nyog hais tias, nyob rau lub kaum hli ntuj 25th, txawm hais tias qhov tseeb hais ntawm Tongway roj teeb daim ntawv tseem tsis tau tsa, lub thickness ntawm cov roj teeb daim ntawv tau raug txo. Lub thickness ntawm cov pa 166 roj teeb daim ntawv tseem tshuav 160μm, thiab cov thickness ntawm 182 thiab 210 roj teeb ntawv tau raug txo los ntawm 155μm mus rau 150μm. Tsuas yog 4 lub hlis dhau los txij li qhov kev hloov kho tuab kawg nkaus, thiab cov qauv ntawm cov ntawv roj teeb tau nrawm dua.

Raws li qhov kawg ntawm cov khoom lag luam, cov khoom lag luam tawm ntawm kev tswj hwm tus nqi txuas ntxiv mus thawb cov nqi tsim khoom, thiab cov nqi khoom nce ntxiv. Txog rau tam sim no, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ib leeg siv lead ua PERC cov khoom sib xyaw ua ke yog khaws cia ntawm 1.93 yuan / W, 182, 210 ib sab ib lub iav yog khaws cia ntawm 1.98 yuan / W, ob sab ob sab iav yog khaws cia ntawm 2 yuan / W; Tus nqi ntawm 182 ob-sided ob chav iav N-hom Cheebtsam yog khaws cia ntawm 2.16 yuan / W. Kev ua lag luam txawv teb chaws, Tebchaws Asmeskas 182/210 ib leeg siv lead ua tus nqi tau nce me ntsis, tam sim no $ 0.38 / W, Is Nrias teb, Europe, Australia ib ntus ruaj khov.

Nyob rau hauv lub iav sector, txawm hais tias tus nqi ntawm photovoltaic iav tau nce peb zaug nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, vim hais tias tus tsav tsheb yam tseem ceeb ntawm nce nqi ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv, roj thiab kev tsim kho iav thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau kev tso tawm tas li. muaj peev xwm ntau lawm thiab kev txo qis ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm module, kev lag luam xav tau tsis muaj zog, iav tus nqi ib txwm nyob rau hauv ib qho kev txiav txim qis qis txij lub Xya Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Hli.

Tab sis tsis ntev los no, tus nqi ntawm photovoltaic iav kuj yog brewing. Tangshan Jinxin Hnub Ci Zog, lub tuam txhab iav, tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv hloov kho tus nqi thaum kawg Lub Kaum Hli, qhia tias lub tuam txhab iav tus nqi yuav nce 2.5-3 yuan ib square meter. Qhov tseeb qhov chaw tus nqi ntawm PVinfolink thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2 kuj qhia tau tias cov iav photovoltaic pib nce nws tus nqi. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 3.2 hli iav yog 28 yuan / ㎡, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 2 hli iav yog 21 yuan / ㎡. Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, photovoltaic iav tau nce 9.4 feem pua ​​~ 12 feem pua, dhau los ua tus nqi qis tshaj ntawm kev lag luam saw txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo.

Ua li cas rau yav tav su ua lag luam?

Nws yog hais tias qhov kev thov txiav txim tus nqi. Yuav ua li cas rau yav tom ntej tus nqi sib txawv, tab sis kuj los ntawm cov khoom thiab xav tau sab ntawm kev txiav txim.

Los ntawm cov khoom siv, raws li cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais ntawm PVinfolink, txog rau tam sim no, txhua xyoo silicon muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj 400GW, thiab nrog cov qauv ntawm wafer thickness thinning tshaj qhov ceev, silicon noj ib watt yog accelerating. Txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo no, lub peev xwm ntawm silicon txhua xyoo yuav nce mus rau ntau dua 500GW, thiab cov khoom xav tau hauv xyoo 2023 yuav poob mus txog 325-360GW. Qhov tsis txaus ntawm silicon yuav pib yooj yim. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, vim tias qhov kev tso tawm qeeb qeeb ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm silicon, thiab qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev kos duab muaj peev xwm tseem ceev dua li ntawm silicon, tus nqi ntawm silicon yuav tsum tswj kom muaj qhov qis qis qis dua thaum ntxov. 2023.

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, txij li thaum pib ntawm 2021, qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam siab tshaj plaws thiab "cov txiaj ntsig loj" los ntawm cov khoom siv raw tau nyiam ntau tus "cov neeg sib tw" nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam, suav nrog ntau "cov loj" xws li Hesheng Silicon. Kev lag luam, Geely, Qingdian Zog thiab Qiya Group. Txawm hais tias nws yuav siv sij hawm qee lub sijhawm rau kev tsim tawm tshiab, nws tuaj yeem pom tias cov khoom siv silicon cia yog txaus txaus.

Saib ntawm qhov kev thov sab, hauv tsev, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab los ntawm National Energy Administration, qhov sib txuas tshiab txuas ntawm cov chaw siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Cuaj Hli xyoo no tau mus txog 52.6GW. Yog hais tias lub peev xwm ntsia tau qhov kev kwv yees ntawm "txhua xyoo txuas tshiab ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb fais fab photovoltaic 108GW", nws txhais tau hais tias 55.4GW photovoltaic tej yaam num yuav raug tsim thiab txuas rau hauv daim phiaj hauv plaub lub hlis tom ntej.

Raws li rau "PV tshiab installation lub sij hawm nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav tsis pub tshaj 100GW", Polestar tau ua ib tug kev soj ntsuam, 53 feem pua ​​ntawm cov uas tau teb tsis zoo, tab sis kuj 47 feem pua ​​ntseeg hais tias "Lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog lub ncov kab sib txuas, lub quarter thib plaub yuav tseem. ua lub caij nyoog siab tshaj installation ". Muaj zog downstream ntsia thov rau tus nqi kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm kev txhawb nqa hauv qab.

Nyob rau pem hauv ntej thoob ntiaj teb, txawm tias muaj kev sib kis, kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw thiab kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb, kuj tseem muaj xov xwm zoo. Raws li qhov chaw nres nkoj congestion eased thiab tshiab shipbuilding muaj peev xwm raug tso tawm, shipping qeeb maj mam txhim kho, shipping nqi maj mam rov qab. Tsis tas li ntawd, Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau tshaj tawm qhov kev ncua ntawm kev tawm tsam thiab kev tiv thaiv kev them nyiaj rau cov hnub ci hnub ci thiab cov qauv xa tawm los ntawm plaub lub tebchaws Esxias sab hnub tuaj rau ob xyoos. Yog li ntawd, nws xav tias qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic hauv kev lag luam txawv teb chaws yuav nce ntxiv.

Nws yog tsim nyog hais tias nyob rau theem txoj cai, National Energy Administration thiab lwm lub tuam tsev muaj peev xwm tau tshaj tawm cov cai tseem ceeb thiab kev ntsuas rau cov teeb meem kev lag luam photovoltaic ob peb zaug xyoo no.

Thaum Lub Yim Hli 24 xyoo no, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, Lub Nroog Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Tswj Xyuas, National Energy Administration tau koom ua ke tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev sib koom tes ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic saw thiab cov saw hlau, tsom rau kev ruaj khov ntawm cov nqi lag luam; Thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology thiab lwm lub koom haum peb tau sib tham txog qee qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov tuam txhab polysilicon thiab cov koom haum kev lag luam, thiab coj cov koom haum cuam tshuam los txhawb kev soj ntsuam tus kheej thiab kev tswj hwm tus qauv; Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 28, National Development thiab Reform Commission thiab National Energy Administration tau sib koom ua Daim Ntawv Ceeb Toom Txog Cov Teeb Meem ntsig txog Kev Txhim Kho Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic chain, xav kom "ntau qhov kev ntsuas yuav tsum tau ua kom ntseeg tau tias cov khoom tsim nyog ntawm polysilicon", "Tsim tej yam kev mob los txhawb lub siab ntau lawm muaj peev xwm ntawm polysilicon kom ncav cuag ntau lawm raws sij hawm", thiab "tag nrho lav lub hwj chim xav tau ntawm polysilicon manufacturers"... Nws tsis yog nyuaj rau pom tias lub hauv paus ntawm cov saum toj no cov cai yog los daws cov upstream. thiab downstream muaj peev xwm mismatch ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic saw thiab stabilize tus nqi ntawm cov khoom ntws, thiaj li ua kom muaj kev noj qab haus huv ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic.

Feem ntau, cov khoom lag luam ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam saw tau txhim kho maj mam, tab sis qhov kev thov kawg tseem muaj zog nyob hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, yog li nws yuav tsim kev txhawb nqa zoo rau tus nqi ntawm cov saw hlau. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog rau cov kev cai saum toj kawg nkaus, qhov xwm txheej feem ntau txhim kho, thiab kev noj qab haus huv thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic yuav yog qhov kev sib txawv.